Forecasting resilient pathways
Helping primary producers prepare for extreme weather events
Capacity to Deliver - LEP024-01
The issue
Natural disasters have been increasing in intensity at higher frequency. Accordingly, Tenterfield has experienced successive severe weather events, including 5 years of drought followed by the 2019/2020 Black Summer bushfires and heavy rains, resulting in water supply contamination in 2019. This was closely followed by flooding (2022) and the Section 44 Bushfires (2023). This barrage of unseasonal major weather events has negatively impacted production, normal operations and incoming revenue across the shire. The inability to predict and prepare for weather-associated risk in natural and productive systems results in less stable incomes and higher costs (e.g. inflation and insurance). Such chronic situations compromise personal confidence, mental and social wellbeing.
The solution
Granite Borders Landcare worked with the Southern Queensland Northern NSW Research Innovation Hub to deliver a workshop designed to help landholders better prepare for and more accurately predict coming weather events. This Do-It-Yourself workshop included a session in drought-proofing your dam, delivered by Hydrology Engineer, Michael Scobie; and climate modelling by Climate Mate, Vicki Mayne from the Northern Australia Climate Program (NACP). Originally funded through an FRRR Strengthening Rural Communities grant, the workshop was so popular, we engaged them in an online webinar 6 months later. The organisation and delivery of this was fully supported by LEP, proving that this helps us deliver what we know works to an even broader audience.
The impact
The speakers related tools and techniques with relevant examples from cattle production. Landholders were given a guided tour of the functional potential of the BOM website, exploring how they can operationalise knowledge of interacting climate systems to plan for regular and extreme weather. This spoke to participants, whose feedback suggested changed practices, including: “suspend shade cloth over dam”, “apply climate understanding to cattle work” and “focus more on forecasting”. Among requests for speaker slides was a suggestion to film workshops like these and upload them to Youtube. They wanted to capture the message and return to it when needed. The workshops were picked up in the Tenterfield Shire Council Drought Resilience Plan Programs Implementation Proposal (May 28, 2025).
Learnings
Five different weather systems interact to drive rainfall in Australia over different regions and seasons. These include: 1. ENSO - the El Nino-La Nina Southern Oscillation; 2. IOD - the Indian Ocean Dipole; 3. Australian Monsoons; 4. MJO - the Madden-Julian Oscillation; 5. SAM - the Southern Annular Mode. All of these can be interrogated on the Bureau of Meteorology website, to prepare personalised 3-monthly weather predictions. BOM is more than just a quick stop for temperature and rainfall.
Key facts
- Drought-proofing your dam
- Preventing dam evaporation
- Climate systems modelling
- Making more of the BOM website tool
- Natural disaster prediction and planning